What would make Putin agree to a ceasefire? Ukrainian MP responds
Kostenko believes Putin would propose short ceasefires in an attempt to avoid crippling US sanctions
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Vladimir Putin / © Associated Press / © Associated Press
Despite increased diplomatic activity, Russia has shown no genuine willingness to end the fighting, instead using delaying tactics by constantly introducing new conditions and imitating a negotiation process.
Roman Kostenko, a member of Ukraine’s parliament, secretary of its defense committee and an SSU colonel, said this on Ukraine’s 24 Kanal.
According to the lawmaker, there are currently no signs that the war could end in the near future. He said president Vladimir Putin views negotiations solely as a tool for manipulation.
“I definitely do not see an end to the war. Anything is possible, but I do not see it,” Kostenko stressed.
The SSU colonel suggested that Moscow may agree only to short-term, limited pauses. These could include so-called “energy ceasefires” or silence regimes lasting one or two days, at most a week. However, he says the aim of such moves is not peace, but the creation of a favourable image for the international community.
Kostenko is convinced that the main audience, for what he described as a performance, was newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump. The Kremlin is trying to persuade Washington of its supposed “capacity to negotiate” in order to avoid increased pressure.
“To keep Trump’s attention, so that he thinks Putin might actually be willing to agree to something,” the expert explained.
Russia’s main motivation in this game, he said, is both economic and military. Putin fears that if negotiations fail, the United States could take radical steps, that would paralyse Russia’s war machine.
According to Kostenko, the imitation of dialogue is needed so that Trump does not immediately seize Russia’s entire shadow fleet and so that so-called “100%” sanctions are not imposed.
This would allow Russia to continue purchasing components and building missiles.
As a result, any proposals by Moscow for a temporary lull are merely an attempt to buy time to restore resources and prepare for new stages of aggression, the secretary of the parliamentary defense committee concluded.