When Russia will agree to negotiations: Expert names only condition for peace
A political analyst has named the main factor that would force the Kremlin to the negotiating table to end the war in Ukraine.
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Zelenskyy and Putin
Any real peace deals depend solely on the two key combatants, while other international players remain secondary, political analyst Ruslan Rokhov said on Kyiv 24 TV.
"An agreement requires two willing sides. There are only two sides here — Russia and Ukraine. Everything else, as we know by now, is just complications," the expert stressed.
According to him, Western partners have leverage that interests Moscow, but they will not cut deals behind Kyiv’s back.
"Asset freezes matter to Russia. They want their money back, which is where Europe plays a role. But Europe will only act in coordination with Ukraine. It doesn't matter if the U.S., Europe, or China are at the table — at the end of the day, it comes down to the positions of Kyiv and Moscow, and right now there is no desire for compromise," Rokhov explained.
The substance of any future talks will depend entirely on the internal situation inside the aggressor state. Only real economic pain will force Moscow to drop its propaganda scripts.
"Whether talks continue or not — whether they meet just to hear the same old stories about history and the Pechenegs, or actually talk business — depends entirely on how identical the situation becomes for the Russian economy," the expert noted.
He adds that this is backed by conflict theory, which views any negotiation through a very simple lens.
Forcing Kremlin to make peace
A single rule determines whether a country is ready to stop fighting. It is a pragmatic calculation of costs versus gains.
"A side will only walk away from a conflict if the cost of fighting outweighs the benefits of continuing," Rokhov stressed.
This is why Ukraine and its allies must maintain relentless pressure on the aggressor state to make diplomacy its only way out.
"If we want peace through diplomacy, we have to drive up the cost of this invasion. The higher the price tag for continuing, the more likely the Kremlin will blink and agree to talks," the expert concluded.