NATO would face greater losses than Ukraine in war, expert cites key reason

In the event of a direct military confrontation with Russia, NATO countries could suffer far heavier losses than Ukraine due to the nature of modern warfare, in which drones dominate and effectively paralyse medical evacuation.

This was said by Colonel Valerii Vyshnevskyi, Ukraine’s senior representative at the NATO–Ukraine Joint Analysis, Training and Education Centre (JATEC), speaking to Business Insider.

Vyshnevskyi says the situation on Ukraine’s front lines shows the concept of the «golden hour» — providing medical care within the first 60 minutes after injury — no longer works, as the battlefield airspace is saturated with reconnaissance and strike drones that quickly expose any movement of vehicles or infantry.

Vyshnevskyi said Ukrainian troops are often compelled to wait for deteriorating weather conditions — including fog, rain or low cloud cover — to secure an opportunity to safely evacuate fellow soldiers.

«Such a war would most likely be significantly more destructive, as a result of which the Alliance would suffer heavier losses than Ukraine, ” the colonel said, adding that NATO would inevitably face the same problems related to logistics and evacuation.

Awareness of the threat within the Alliance is becoming increasingly clear. As the publication notes, Western leaders understand that the conflict could extend beyond Ukraine. In particular, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has previously suggested that Russia could be ready to use force against the Alliance within the next five years.

Recognising the danger drones pose to medical missions, NATO is actively seeking new technological solutions. NATO’s Allied Command Transformation (ACT), together with JATEC, has already organised an «Innovation Challenge, ” which received 175 submissions from 20 countries worldwide.

Among the ideas proposed and considered by the competition’s finalists were portable systems for treating kidney failure in field conditions, specialised improvised stretchers for rough terrain, secure communication channels for medics, and ballistic plates for setting up temporary shelters.

Colonel Niall Aye-Maung, head of the medical branch at NATO’s Allied Command Transformation, said the Alliance is moving away from seeking a single universal solution. Instead, Western militaries are studying Ukraine’s experience in order to comprehensively redesign medical systems to meet the demands of large-scale, high-intensity warfare.