Russia gears up for summer offensive: Presidential Office names key attack vectors
Russian forces are expected to launch a major summer offensive targeting the Donetsk region and the Zaporizhzhia axis. However, Kyiv officials report that the Kremlin is already missing its own deadlines and is highly unlikely to achieve its targets anytime soon.
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Pavlo Palisa
This summer, the Russian army will likely focus on attempts to reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk region. The occupiers may also expand their offensive along the Zaporizhzhia axis — specifically at the junction of the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, the Deputy Head of the Presidential Office, Brigadier General Pavlo Palisa, told 24 Kanal.
Russia failed to meet spring plans
Palisa says Russia’s main concentration this year will be tied to the Donetsk region.
According to Palisa, Russia’s primary concentration this year will be tied to the Donetsk region.
«With two weeks left until the start of summer, looking at the battlefield situation as of mid-May, I believe they have failed to achieve their expected results. On the other hand, the Russians will be concentrated on reaching the administrative borders of the Donetsk region this year,» Palisa said.
At the same time, he notes that the enemy will also attempt to advance along the Zaporizhzhia axis — at the junction of the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Kremlin misses its own deadlines
Palisa emphasizes that the Russian command frequently adjusts its plans, primarily regarding timelines. However, according to his assessment, the occupiers have failed to meet a single established deadline so far.
Specifically, Russian forces were tasked with capturing Kostiantynivka by the end of April but remain far from this.
Additionally, the Russian leadership ordered its groupings to set the conditions for and launch an assault on the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration in late May or early June. According to Palisa, it is obvious that this task will not be completed either.
«As of now, they have not met a single deadline,» he said.
Can Russia reach the Donetsk region borders?
Palisa doubts that the Russian army will be able to execute the tasks set by the Kremlin in the coming months.
He stated that he does not believe the Russians will be capable of achieving their goals within the next 3–4 months. He also doubts that Russia will fulfill the objective of reaching the administrative border of the Donetsk region by early September.
«I am more inclined to believe they will not succeed by the end of the year either,» Palisa said.
Is there a threat from Belarus?
Palisa separately commented on potential provocations from Belarus. He noted that the Russians could attempt to use the Belarusian vector to draw a portion of Ukrainian forces to the north.
However, to mount a somewhat plausible provocation, Russia would need to assemble an adequate grouping of forces.
«Given their losses and the overall state of affairs on the frontline, I do not see such a capability right now,» Palisa concluded.