Will Moscow be struck on May 9? Expert outlines possible scenarios

Russian president Vladimir Putin made a mistake by rejecting a proposal for a temporary ceasefire, which, according to analysts, could have allowed the May 9 parade in Moscow to proceed with fewer security risks.

This view was expressed by Oleksii Melnyk, Head of Foreign Policy and International Security Programs at the Razumkov Centre, in an interview with Radio NV.

“Putin was wrong to reject the Ukrainian proposal. At minimum, it would have guaranteed he could stand on the podium and be certain that nothing would hit Red Square or its vicinity," the expert said.

He added that even a short ceasefire would not have changed the strategic situation on the front line, but could have affected the security environment in Moscow during the celebrations.

Ukraine’s impact on the May 9 parade

Melnyk says Ukraine has already achieved an effect around the event even without any direct incidents during the parade itself.

“Like ripples in water, there has been a reaction — the parade scenario has changed, and Russian officials are now issuing warnings that if Red Square is struck, there will be consequences unlike anything seen before,” he said.

Possible scenarios

The expert says, several scenarios are being discussed around May 9 in Moscow — ranging from potential drone attack attempts to a situation where nothing happens, but the perceived threat itself becomes a key factor.

“Even if a double for Putin were used at the parade, it would still be worth avoiding unnecessary risks, and the impact would remain significant,” Melnyk added.

He also pointed to reactions in Russian information channels, including pro-war Z bloggers, who reacted critically to Kremlin statements about possible “responses” to strikes on Moscow.

Melnyk stressed that Ukraine must assess different possible developments, taking into account military, political and media consequences.

He said risks remain high, particularly due to Russian rhetoric about potential “serious consequences” in the event of strikes on the Russian capital.