Will Lukashenko attack Ukraine? SSU general outlines three reasons for Belarus drills near the border

Belarus has once again launched military exercises near its borders with Poland and Ukraine, with the drills scheduled to run from 19 to 25 March.

Retired Major General of the Security Service of Ukraine Viktor Yahun has commented on whether Ukraine faces a threat this time.

The latest large-scale Belarusian military exercises in the western direction should be assessed calmly, but without underestimating the risks.

«Any activity by Belarusian forces today is not solely a matter for Minsk. It reflects Belarus’s military integration into Russia’s defense system, ” he said.

According to Yahun, the exercises are formally presented as a combat readiness check. In reality, he argues, they serve three key purposes.

First

They demonstrate Alexander Lukashenko’s control over the security apparatus. For his regime, this is a matter of survival. The army, Yahun notes, is less a tool of war than an instrument of internal stability.

Second

They create sustained tension along NATO’s borders. Poland and the Baltic states are compelled to respond even to routine manoeuvres, as since the 2022 invasion, any «exercise» in the post-Soviet space is viewed as a potential threat.

Third

«A classic Russian military effect of diverting resources. Activity in the Belarusian direction forces Ukraine to maintain troops there that could otherwise be deployed on the eastern front. It’s an old Soviet strategy of stretching an opponent along the perimeter, ” the general explains.

Are there signs of an attack from Belarus?

Yahun says there are currently no signs of a strike group being formed that would be capable of launching a large-scale offensive from Belarusian territory.

What is the enemy’s likely plan?

Instead, he said more likely risks include border provocations, information operations, demonstrative troop movements, sabotage training and joint Russian-Belarusian hybrid pressure scenarios.

He added that since 2022, Ukraine’s northern direction can no longer be considered secondary, noting that the area is reinforced with engineering fortifications, constant intelligence monitoring and covering forces.

In his view, the main strategic risk lies not in the Belarusian army itself — which he described as limited in both combat capability and motivation — but in Russia’s ability to use Belarusian territory as a military platform for missile launches, air operations, training centers and a show of force.