Could Ukraine war end soon? Parliament cites window of opportunity
Russia is attempting to compel Ukraine to leave Donetsk region in order to portray a «victory» to its domestic population. Kyiv, however, has defined clear red lines and is preparing for diplomatic manoeuvres.
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Ukraine war’s end / © TSN.ua
Spring could open a real window of opportunity for ending the war, with March and April seen as potentially decisive, according to Fedir Venislavskyi, a lawmaker from the Servant of the People party and a member of the parliamentary Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, speaking in an interview with Apostrophe.
He says the Russian leadership is primarily seeking to create the appearance of victory for domestic audiences.
What «victory» is Russia trying to «sell» its population?
«Their aim is obvious: to show their domestic audience — via TV, channels and other media — that they have won and achieved certain goals. If critically assessed, the goals outlined in Ryabkov’s 2021 ultimatum cannot really be achieved, and they know this very well, ” Venislavskyi said.
He added that Moscow is intent on ending the war only in a way that allows it to present the outcome as a major success.
Venislavskyi said that without full control of Donetsk — a goal Russia has pursued since 2014 — the Kremlin cannot present the result as a victory.
Ukraine’s «red line»
«They are pressing at all levels and constantly sending signals through analysts and politicians, trying to make us leave Donetsk region. For us — as the president has stated and as we have repeatedly said in parliament — this is a „red line“. We cannot and will never recognize leaving our territories or handing them over to Russian control, ” he said.
He added that current discussions could only involve establishing a line of demarcation within any possible peace agreements.
Prospects for March–April
«The very fact that this process is happening indicates that a window of opportunity is open, and the chances of ending the war while preserving our national interests within the current line of demarcation are quite high. I estimate that March–April will offer the best opportunities, ” Venislavskyi said.
He also stressed that Russia is attempting to pressure Ukraine through attacks on civilians to force concessions. However, he said, these tactics will not succeed, as Ukrainians are able to withstand them and no concessions will be made under the threat of terror.