Economic growth slowdown and over 46 hryvnias per dollar – government forecast for the next few years

People's Deputy and member of the Finance Committee of the Verkhovna Rada, Yaroslav Zheleznyak, stated that the Cabinet of Ministers, in its Budget Declaration for 2025-2027, predicted a slowdown in economic growth and an increase in the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine.

He wrote about this on Telegram.

According to the declaration, the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) is forecasted at 2.7% in 2025, with subsequent acceleration to 7.5% in 2026 and a slowdown to 6.2% in 2027.

"The main restraining factor for economic development is the destruction of Ukraine's energy capacities, the restoration of which requires significant resources and time," the document states.

The GDP growth forecast for Ukraine in 2024 is set at 4.6%, as included in the state budget for this year, and has not changed.

In addition, the government expects an increase in the average dollar exchange rate:

• 2025: up to 45 hryvnias (45.6 in December);

• 2026: up to 46.5 hryvnias (45.9 in December);

• 2027: up to 46.4 hryvnias (46.2 in December).

The budget for 2024 includes an average exchange rate of 40.7 UAH/USD and 42.1 UAH/USD for December.

Budget deficit:

• 2025: 18.2%;

• 2026: 10.3%;

• 2027: 6.7%.

The minimum wage in 2025 will be 8,000 UAH.

Regarding consumer price growth, the Cabinet of Ministers forecasts inflation at 9.5% annually in 2025, 10.4% in 2026, and 5.9% in 2027. The state budget for 2024 includes an inflation rate of 9.7%.

"The slowdown in domestic price growth will occur in the context of economic activity recovery and market saturation with domestically produced goods, the creation of an effective competitive environment through accelerated integration into the EU common market, increased effectiveness and transparency of state aid to economic entities, improved conditions for the development of small and medium-sized businesses, and a transition to an innovative model of economic development," the government notes.

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