Enemy attempts “Siversk scenario” in Kostiantynivka, analyst says

According to military analyst Bohdan Myroshnykov on social media, Russian troops are attempting to use a tested “Siversk scenario” tactic in the area of Kostiantynivka.

The tactic involves rapid infiltration by small infantry units with support from artillery, drones and airstrikes. The main objective is to establish positions as quickly as possible, which differs from the slower approach observed near Pokrovsk.

After securing a foothold, the enemy brings in reinforcements and seeks to expand its controlled territory. Ukrainian Defense Forces are successfully eliminating some enemy groups, but the situation is worsening.

Subsidence has been observed on both flanks, putting parts of Kostiantynivka partially in a fire trap. The frontline is shifting from a straight line to an enemy bulge with a “pocket” in the center, raising the risk of operational encirclement.

“The further this goes, the harder it will become. If nothing changes, Kostiantynivka will be lost,” Myroshnykov says.