How Ukraine will counter "Oreshnik": An expert names systems capable of stopping Russian terror

Recently, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, stated in an interview with TSN.Tyzhden, that Ukraine currently lacks systems capable of intercepting Russia’s "Oreshnik." This has prompted Ukraine to actively negotiate with allies to obtain such weapons.

Which countries have systems capable of countering "Oreshnik"? Can Ukraine develop its own missile defense system of this caliber? Military expert Petro Chernyk addressed these questions in a comment to ArmyInform.

"Oreshnik" is a very serious missile system. The Russians present it as something incredibly new, but that’s far from the truth. What is it, really? First, it’s an old RSD-10 "Pioneer," developed back in 1976. This is a fairly serious system. It has a strike range of up to 5,000 kilometers, with booster block speeds reaching up to 10,000 kilometers per hour. It follows a classic exo-atmospheric ballistic trajectory, arriving at its target at extremely high speed," Chernyk explained.

The Russians claim that "Oreshnik’s" booster block contains up to 36 warheads. However, Chernyk points to a crucial issue: it is highly doubtful that these warheads contain explosives.

"Most likely, they rely on kinetic energy. When any object accelerates to such speeds, even a kilogram of nuts moving at that velocity would release more energy than a kilogram of TNT equivalent," he noted.

It is doubtful that the Russians delivered a strong blow

According to Chernyk, if one closely examines the only known strike - last year’s attack on Dnipro - it becomes clear that the warheads were of questionable quality. The video footage clearly shows a large amount of light, which, under conditions of friction, usually indicates combustion.

"It is doubtful that the Russians delivered a truly powerful strike," he emphasized.

Chernyk believes that another system that may have served as the basis for "Oreshnik" is a modified version of the RS-24 "Yars" missile.

Can it be intercepted?

"At the moment, it appears that neither the MIM-104 Patriot nor the SAMP/T system can effectively counter it. However, claiming that interception is entirely impossible would also be incorrect," he said.

Could Ukraine develop its own strategic air defense system?

According to Chernyk, the U.S. possesses the THAAD system, specifically designed to intercept such ballistic threats.

"THAAD is an exo-atmospheric system that operates beyond 200 kilometers. But there’s a catch: a single launcher costs $2.5 billion. Yes, I’m not mistaken - that’s per unit. The fire control system alone costs $600 million. Only the U.S. can afford it, and the only other country that has purchased it is Saudi Arabia," he noted.

However, there is some optimism. The U.S. recently introduced the Typhon launcher in 2024.

"Primarily, this system is designed to fire BGM-109 Tomahawk missiles. But it also includes a launch container capable of launching the RIM-161 Standard Missile 3, which is an anti-ballistic missile designed specifically to counter threats like "Oreshnik." This could be an option for Ukraine if our American allies decide to provide it. However, we must also consider developing our own systems," Chernyk explained.

Chernyk recalled that of the more than 30 heavy intercontinental ballistic missiles developed by the Soviet Union, two-thirds were designed in Ukraine at Pivdenmash. This means Ukraine has the technological and scientific potential. It just requires investment and engineering effort.

"I am more than confident that Ukraine can develop its own strategic air defense system capable of countering "Oreshnik." However, to be fair, at this moment, we do not yet have such a system," the military expert concluded.

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