Main offensive to come in winter: Reserve major reveals Russia’s plans on frontlines

Russia understands its army will not achieve significant gains this autumn. Instead, the Kremlin is trying to exert psychological pressure by talking up prospects of success in the winter campaign.

This opinion was expressed by a veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war, reserve major Oleksiy Hetman, on Radio NV.

According to Hetman, the Russian advance in Ukraine has slowed considerably. Moscow had promised a major autumn offensive to resolve what it calls the “special military operation.” Yet the reality on the battlefield has forced them to admit otherwise.

“The Russians realized that any meaningful progress this autumn is highly unlikely. That's why over the summer they tried to scare everyone — putting pressure on European countries and especially the United States — warning that a major offensive was imminent. But the obvious question arises: how could they do that without more manpower, weapons, or equipment?” Hetman explains.

He stresses that if Russia failed to break through in summer, it is unrealistic to expect that the same forces could deliver results in autumn. “It’s already mid-September, and they haven’t achieved anything significant on the front,” he said.

“With November approaching, time is running out. Soon the rains will set in, and moving forward will be extremely difficult — even though they’ve concentrated forces in the Zaporizhzhia sector,” Hetman added.

He points out that Russian statements are increasingly focused on winter. “The main offensive will be in winter. They are preparing for a winter campaign. In summer they trained; in autumn they’ll try something… and since late August they’ve already been saying that in winter they will achieve victory once again,” the veteran said.

Hetman concludes that these declarations are part of a psychological strategy: the occupiers seek to project confidence and pressure Ukraine by claiming that winter will bring decisive battlefield gains.