Russia's escalation contradicts its public calls for peace talks – IMF

Air attacks, particularly using drones, intensified in November and December. Black Sea shipping lanes remain open despite recent attacks on cargo vessels. All this contradicts Russia's public calls for peace talks.

This was stated in an IMF memorandum with Ukraine.

Details

As noted, three years into Russia's invasion, the humanitarian impact remains staggering. The available data shows:

- 6.75 million refugees are outside Ukraine;

- nearly 4 million people are internally displaced;

- almost 12,000 civilians have been killed and nearly 26,000 injured;

- one-third of the population faces food security challenges.

Authorities are working swiftly to address challenges posed by ongoing destructive attacks on critical infrastructure. At the same time, the energy situation remains highly difficult, with power shortages and outages depending on the scale of further Russian attacks and winter temperatures.

Despite the extremely challenging wartime conditions, the economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience, growing by 4.2% year-on-year in the first 10 months of 2024. Growth is expected to remain around 4% by year-end. The IMF emphasizes that the economy could recover more quickly, particularly if the security situation improves in the near term. However, military risks remain extremely high.

"Russia's escalation in November and December contradicts its public calls for peace talks and brings more suffering to people, greater damage and losses for businesses, additional budgetary pressure, and increased financing needs," the agency summarized.

The IMF believes that a negative scenario involves a longer and more intense war, leading to prolonged and intensified economic shocks. In contrast, the baseline scenario assumes the war will end in the fourth quarter of 2025.

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