Russia picks a city and wages terror: Zhdanov warns of massive strike ahead

On the night of November 18, Russia launched a massive assault on the city, sending around 45 «Shahed» drones. The attack left heavy destruction, hitting a television tower, a media company office, civilian business facilities, and residential buildings.

Military analyst Oleh Zhdanov told TSN.ua how Russia has shifted its strike tactics, what made this attack unusual, and which Ukrainian city could be hit next.

According to him, Russian attacks follow a repetitive pattern.

«We always say that this is how things work in the Russian Federation. They rarely stray from the templates they follow. Even with Dnipro, the pattern can be traced back to World War II, ” said Oleh Zhdanov.

The military analyst explains that, technically, this kind of massive assault is extremely effective. It virtually ensures that Ukraine’s air defenses are bypassed.

«Massing fire on one spot or a single group target — be it a city, a troop cluster, military equipment, or an industrial site — creates conditions that virtually guarantee a breach of air defenses. And when multiple types of aerial weapons are launched together, the odds of punching through the air defense system rise dramatically, which is exactly what we’re witnessing, ” the expert says.

He adds that Ukraine faces a particular problem when it comes to shooting down ballistic missiles:

«We have very few systems capable of interception. And when we receive the next ones — I think it remains a very difficult issue, and the outlook is not particularly promising, ” he said.

Distinct features of Russia’s recent attack

Oleh Zhdanov highlighted the targets of the Russian army during the recent large-scale attack:

«In Dnipro, media offices and a television tower were struck. The railway station could have been targeted as part of infrastructure. But what makes this attack notable is that they hit information distribution facilities. Recall Kyiv in March, when missiles struck the TV tower area in the early days of the invasion? Around it were a military memorial cemetery and the Babyn Yar memorial. There was no target other than the TV tower — and that’s exactly where they hit.»

The Russian army follows a clear pattern: they aim to suppress media, military analyst Oleh Zhdanov said.

«An informed society creates a huge problem for the enemy. When people have access to information, they understand what’s happening and where. That allows them to make decisions and figure out their next steps. That’s the key point, ” Zhdanov emphasized.

At the same time, industrial facilities remain a priority target for the Russian army.

«They think some operations might still be running there, or there could be warehouses. Infrastructure is always a priority. So they figured — why not — and hit media outlets and information distribution systems, since any TV tower nowadays acts as both an antenna and a relay for transmitting data and spreading information, ” Zhdanov said.

Which cities Russia may target next

The expert believes Russia will keep launching such attacks because it knows they work.

«Even in Kyiv, we struggle to handle this volume of aerial threats. And in other cities, they use fewer ballistic missiles and fewer attack drones — or drones at all — because they know the air defenses there are weaker and easier to overload and break through, ” Zhdanov says.

He suggests that the massive strikes will be limited by the range of the Iskander‑M system — specifically its ballistic missile:

«They’ll operate inside that zone — draw a 500‑kilometre radius from our border. The Iskander‑M has a guaranteed range of about 480 kilometres. Inside that area, they’ll keep repeating these attacks, picking regional capitals, industrial hubs, or — based on their intelligence — concentrations of our troops, training grounds, or any site they choose. That’s where they’ll strike, ” Zhdanov said.

At the same time, according to Oleh Zhdanov, strikes on central and western Ukraine are less effective because of the distance.

«Trying to cover a wider area spreads out their aerial attack assets. In the western half of our country, mostly only cruise missiles reach, with the exception of the „Kinzhal.“ And there are very few launchers for those. They might fire three missiles, but not ten, like they did on Kyiv or with a group strike on Dnipro. So, the massive attacks will likely continue, but only within the reach of the Iskander‑M missile, ” the expert says.

Russia is preparing for a large-scale strike

Monitoring channels report that the Russian army is preparing for a large-scale strike with strategic aviation. Oleh Zhdanov says that Russia has not abandoned such attacks, and their frequency may increase soon.

«No, they have not abandoned them. I believe that strategic aviation missile strikes are likely to resume once active combat subsides. During the winter pause, instead of intense frontline fighting, we can expect massive missile and drone strikes using strategic aviation, ” the expert suggests.

Russian army fields a new type of «Shahed» drone

Oleh Zhdanov notes that during the large-scale strike on Dnipro, the Russian army used several types of attack drones. The enemy is stockpiling them and has sufficient numbers for regular large-scale strikes across Ukraine.

«The „Geranium"‑3 is a jet-powered «Shahed», mainly differing in speed and range. It can fly up to 700 kilometres at 500–550 km/h. The «Harpy» is a tactical-operational drone with a range of up to 500 kilometres. They are broadening the lineup of drones they deploy, ” the expert said.

The «Geranium» is an operational-strategic weapon, with a flight range reaching as much as a thousand kilometres, Oleh Zhdanov explains.

«So why use it at ranges already covered by the „Harpy“ or the jet‑powered „Shahed‑3“? Especially since it has higher speed, making it harder to intercept and leaving less time for countermeasures. It is less maneuverable, following a mostly straight path with slight deviations or turns, but its speed is nearly three times higher than that of a standard „Shahed, ” the expert explained.

Russia has also fielded a new strike drone — the «Shahed‑101».

«It’s an Iranian system with a 300‑kilometer range and an 8–9 kilogram warhead. Its range is enough for attacks, so instead of spending a big drone, they can simply launch more small ones,» Zhdanov says.