Russia preparing an "Oreshnik" strike on Ukraine? Expert weighs the current threat level

In recent days, both military experts and monitoring Telegram channels have suggested that Russia may launch another large-scale strike against Ukraine in the near future.

However, according to monitoring groups on Wednesday, concerns have intensified following reports of unusual activity at the Kapustin Yar test range, from where Russia could potentially launch an “Oreshnik” missile toward Ukraine.

Military expert Oleksii Hetman says the likelihood of an "Oreshnik" strike currently does exist.

"Oreshnik" against Ukraine: how high is the threat?

"Such a probability exists. Moreover, the Russians have already launched such a missile before. It's worth reminding: the "Oreshnik" is a weapon that is not high-precision and can be used for intimidation," Oleksiy Hetman said in a comment for TSN.ua.

He also reminds that this missile, like any other medium-range missile, was developed to carry a nuclear charge.

"Therefore, no one paid much attention to inaccuracy. "Oreshnik" can be launched to sow panic, to exert pressure," says Hetman, suggesting that the Russians are unlikely to try to destroy a specific military facility in Ukraine with it.

When asked why certain activity is being observed these days at the testing ground from which the "Oreshnik" is launched, Hetman answered: "They may have prepared. Often we try to find some consistency in the Russians' actions. Sometimes it exists, sometimes it doesn't."

Hetman also says the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine may warn in advance if a real threat of a Russian "Oreshnik" strike emerges.

"A message from the American embassy in this case will be a good marker. If the American embassy reacts, it may mean that there is a threat," says Hetman.

At the same time, he urges caution, noting that Russia may deliberately simulate activity to keep Ukrainians on edge.

“This could also be the Russians’ ultimate objective,” Hetman suggests.