War in Ukraine: How Russia chooses cities for attacks — Experts outline scenarios

The Russian army has adopted and will continue to use a relatively new tactic of shelling Ukraine in the near future, targeting one or two populated areas with concentrated, massive drone strikes.

How Russia selects targets for these attacks was explained in a comment to TSN.ua by former General Staff spokesman Vladyslav Seleznyov and military expert Oleh Zhdanov.

“War is the best examiner, revealing the most effective algorithm for using one or another type of weaponry. The Russians have long been searching for a way to suppress our air defense system,” says Seleznyov.

The expert continues: “As it turns out, massive drone attacks are not very successful for the Russians. So they decided to focus their efforts on attacking one, two, or three regions of our country, using the density and number of drones to reliably overwhelm our air defense system. Does this option work? Unfortunately, yes, it does. We are forced to protect the entire territory of our country.”

Seleznyov also notes: “Of course, we don’t know where the Russians will direct their drones when they take off. There could be up to six launch sites. In such conditions, a massive drone attack is carried out with 200 or more units. Not all drones are strike drones; there are "decoy" drones, but operators only see a dot on the radar and don’t know whether it’s a strike drone or a decoy.”

Russian army’s goals

According to the analyst, the Russians should not be underestimated.

“They carry out attacks on targets they have scouted and re-scouted. There are many agents in our country working in the interests of the Russian army. I had the opportunity to speak with representatives of the Defense Forces, who told me that the Russians often try to attack objects that are important to us, either because someone betrays them or because the Russians conduct espionage to identify them. So, the Russian army should not be underestimated. It adapts and often targets objects that are a priority for it,” says the former General Staff spokesman.

This tactic may be used for a long time

Military expert Oleh Zhdanov, analyzing recent Russian attacks, also points out that the strikes have become more concentrated.

“This has been happening for over a month now. Kyiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and other cities have suffered from attacks. The main goal Russia pursues is not so much to hit a soldier on the front line but to shape public opinion so that the rear stops supporting the army, so that the population begins demanding political steps from the leadership that are beneficial to Russia,” the expert says.

He adds: “Therefore, this terror against civilians will now be applied constantly. Russia has put everything on the line. If they don’t break us, we will win this war. They will lose, and they understand this.”

In Zhdanov’s opinion, Russia attacks many regions in turn, likely to ensure that every region feels this terror.

“I don’t see a systematic approach here, but Russia is making sure no region is left without attention,” the expert is convinced.

According to Zhdanov, considering that Russia produces 170 drones daily, one can conclude: “If Russia launches fewer than 170 units, it may indicate stockpiling. There were days when they launched 49 or 85. This means they were sending the rest to storage to later use around 200 simultaneously.”

At the same time, he notes that it has become somewhat harder for Russia to organize massive missile strikes, but this does not mean they are absent. For example, on June 16, monitoring channels reported the likelihood of a massive strike in the coming days.

“I’m not saying Russia has few strategic aircraft left. They have over 100 of various types. But those that are operational, with crews trained for missile launches, are few. Still, I think Russia will try to maintain the pace seen in the first months of 2025, when strikes were carried out every 30–40 days,” says the expert.

Energy infrastructure as a priority

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported yesterday on his Telegram channel that Russia is planning further attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and this terror is becoming increasingly vile.

“They won’t abandon strikes on our energy sector because it’s effective from the perspective of terrorizing civilians. Analyzing the consequences of Russian strikes, it can be said that every time there is damage to energy facilities. Russia doesn’t abandon such attacks. During strikes, one or two energy facilities are always affected. Against the broader backdrop, this is almost invisible, which is how Russia masks strikes on such targets,” says Zhdanov.