End of Ukraine war: Kuleba explains if it’s likely by year-end

Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said a complete end to the war in 2026 is unlikely, but indicated that a ceasefire agreement could be reached. He noted that this outcome would require a unique combination of positive and negative incentives for both sides, which he says does not currently exist.

Kuleba made the comments in an interview with Ukrainska Pravda.

«Ending the war in 2026 — no. Ceasefire — there is a chance, ” he said in response to a question about the probability of hostilities ending during this year.

He said a ceasefire would not immediately bring complete calm, but would instead change the character of the confrontation. «Recently, we saw the story with drones, reportedly Ukrainian drones, attacking Putin’s residence at Valdai. That’s how a ceasefire would work, ” the diplomat said.

Kuleba says that any war only stops when all sides have the appropriate motivation, which he divided into two types: positive and negative.

«Positive motivation — I have achieved in principle what I wanted, that’s enough for now, we stop. Negative motivation — pressure from partners, internal difficulties, when I can’t continue, I need a break, to sort things out or relieve the partner’s pressure forcing me to act, ” the former minister said.

He cited the situation in the Middle East as an example, noting that the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas combines these two factors. At the same time, Kuleba noted that in the Russian-Ukrainian war, «there is currently no combination of these motivations.»

Earlier, he said that windows of opportunity for reviving the negotiation track could be February–March or the summer of 2025, though the overall process could continue until winter 2026.