Third round of Ukraine-Russia negotiations in Istanbul: Can there be a breakthrough?
Ukraine and Russia are preparing for another round of negotiations in Istanbul, which could become the third meeting this year.
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Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul / © Associated Press / © Associated Press
The potential meeting could be the third in 2025.
Although previous rounds allowed for large-scale prisoner exchanges, attempts to discuss a peaceful settlement remain fruitless so far.
In turn, experts believe that Moscow is only simulating negotiations to prolong the war.
What is known about the new round of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia — read in the TSN.ua article.
What is known about the Ukraine-Russia negotiations in Istanbul
This year, with the active mediation of the United States, two rounds of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia took place in Istanbul, Turkey.
The first round took place on May 16, 2025. The result of the negotiations was a large prisoner exchange in the format of «1000 for 1000.»
The second round took place on June 2, 2025.
Before the meeting, the Ukrainian delegation handed over a document with proposals for a peaceful settlement to the Russians. Russia, for its part, hid its so-called memorandum until the last moment and handed it over only on the day of the negotiations.
As a result of the second round, the parties agreed on a prisoner exchange in the format of «all for all» and the return of the bodies of the fallen.
Defenders under 25 years old, seriously ill, and severely wounded returned home from captivity, and the bodies of 1,000 fallen Ukrainian servicemen were returned to Ukraine.
Third round of negotiations in Istanbul: when it might happen
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in his evening video address on July 21, stated that a meeting of the Ukrainian delegation with representatives of the aggressor country Russia could take place «in the near future» in Türkiye.
According to him, the potential date for the negotiations is July 23.
In turn, Turkish media also report on potential negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.
«The negotiations may take place on Wednesday or Thursday. Details regarding the place, time, and composition of the delegation are not disclosed,» sources noted.
On Tuesday, July 22, Zelenskyy held a meeting regarding the Istanbul negotiations, during which Rustem Umerov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, was tasked with leading the Ukrainian delegation.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy / © t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official
«Rustem Umerov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, reported on the implementation of the agreements from the second meeting with the Russian side in Istanbul and the agreement on a new meeting in the near future. Our position is maximally transparent. Ukraine never wanted this war, and it is Russia that must end the war it started,» President Zelenskyy noted.
It is known that the negotiation group will also include representatives of Ukrainian intelligence, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, and the President’s Office.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin expressed its interest in the next meeting and claims to be ready for a new round of negotiations, allegedly waiting for a decision from Kyiv.
According to the spokesperson of the Russian «führer» Dmitry Peskov, the Russian negotiation group will be led by Putin’s adviser Vladimir Medinsky.
Also, according to propaganda media, the Russian delegation will include Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, Head of the Main Directorate of the General Staff Igor Kostyukov, and Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin.
What the parties will discuss
Earlier, Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized that the key topics for negotiations would remain three directions:
return of prisoners of war,
return of children abducted by Russia,
preparation for a leaders' meeting.
In turn, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, during a press conference with French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot in Kyiv on July 21, emphasized that the negotiations would focus on a ceasefire.
Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha / © Getty Images / © Getty Images
«We insist on a truce. And it is very important that these meetings, if a possible date is agreed upon, are substantive. That the other side has a mandate to discuss the most important issues — ending the war, achieving a truce,» Sybiha noted.
In Moscow, they say that the negotiations will discuss draft memorandums. They cynically stated that the positions outlined in the documents are «diametrically opposed.»
«The Russian and Ukrainian draft memorandums on settlement are diametrically opposed. A lot of diplomatic work is needed,» Putin’s spokesperson Peskov said.
The politician also brazenly emphasized that the Kremlin «intends to secure its interests in the matter of Ukrainian settlement.»
What to expect from the negotiations
Analysts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) claim that Russia is using negotiations to prolong the conflict, maintain the initiative on the front, and achieve additional concessions from Ukraine and the West.
The experts note that the lack of changes in the composition of the Russian delegation indicates Russia’s lack of interest in real peace agreements.
They note that dictator-president Vladimir Putin will agree to sit at the negotiating table with Ukraine only under one condition — if his troops suffer crushing defeats on the front.
«Such defeats will not happen in a few weeks and will likely require several months or entire military campaigns. This will be possible provided that the West agrees to properly arm and support the Defense Forces so that they can effectively conduct such operations,» ISW noted.
The same position is held by expert Bohdan Ferens, who believes that the Kremlin is not ready for real concessions in Istanbul and is only simulating negotiations to buy time rather than achieve peace.
According to him, Trump’s team has always understood Moscow’s tactics. Putin, since 2022, has become different — tougher in actions and rhetoric. Although Trump hoped for a quick peace, he was warned: the Kremlin deliberately delays the process to exhaust the opponent.
«The Kremlin seeks to maintain communication with Washington, which is important for them. But at the same time, Putin is not ready to give Trump the trump cards for a loud statement about achieved results. Therefore, we see only formal impulses. And Trump himself already admits that he failed to achieve the desired,» Ferens noted.