Portnikov explains how Ukraine’s experience could help stop Iran
Portnikov analysed how the Ukrainian army learned to defeat a larger adversary and what this means for global security.
Vitaly Portnikov / © Vitaly Portnikov YouTube channel
Fighting in the Middle East has shown that the theory of war differs significantly from its practice. The United States, despite developing a detailed plan for an air campaign to destroy Iran’s military capabilities, has encountered a problem that has been routine for Ukraine for more than four years — the large-scale use of inexpensive «Shahed» drones.
Political analyst and columnist Vitaly Portnikov wrote about this on his Facebook page.
Portnikov says, in the first days of the confrontation, Washington fell into a security and financial trap by spending millions of dollars to shoot down Iranian drones with expensive missiles. He also notes that Tehran’s cooperation with Moscow has never been purely financial.
«Iran supplies drones to Russia not simply for money. Ukraine has become a testing ground for Iran to practise future wars in the Middle East. While helping its Kremlin ally, Iran was learning itself, ” the expert stresses.
The lack of preparedness among Iran’s opponents is confirmed by an official U.S. request to Ukraine for practical assistance against drones.
Ukrainian Armed Forces gain priceless experience against the «axis of evil»
Portnikov says the years of full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war provided valuable experience for both sides. Russia, he notes, is currently practising modern warfare while aligning with authoritarian regimes — supporting Iran and North Korea, and cooperating with China. Moscow is interested in global destabilization and will assist Tehran in targeting American facilities.
Under such circumstances, the world can rely mainly on the experience of Ukrainian Armed Forces.
«For four years the Ukrainian army has not only been learning modern warfare but also shaping it. It has also developed experience of how a smaller force can resist a larger one. Ukrainians can explain how to defend against Iran and how to compel its regime to abandon aggressive actions, ” Portnikov said.
Risks for Ukraine and the end of Trump’s illusions
Escalation in the Middle East presents direct threats for Ukraine. Rising oil prices will provide Russia with additional revenue. The use of Patriot systems against inexpensive drones will soon lead to a global shortage of interceptor missiles.
The crisis, however, creates a «window of opportunity» for Washington to gain geopolitical insight. Portnikov says the new White House administration will have to thoroughly review its strategy.
«Sooner or later, President Trump’s administration will have to come to a straightforward conclusion: without Ukrainian experience, it is impossible to secure American military sites in the Middle East or fully grasp the logic of modern warfare. This entails the need to help Ukraine resist Russian aggression, rather than maintaining dangerous illusions about reaching an understanding with Putin, ” Portnikov said.