Russia-Belarus nuclear drills: Military expert unpacks Putin’s hidden message for China

Russia and Belarus launched joint nuclear exercises to coincide with Vladimir Putin’s high-profile visit to China. The Russian dictator is attempting a flex for Xi Jinping, aiming to project military might and operational capability. But China’s intelligence services are well aware of the real state of Russia’s military on the battlefield, Ukrainian military analyst and former General Staff spokesman Vladyslav Selezniov said on Radio NV.

According to Selezniov, Chinese President Xi Jinping has a clear picture of the real state of affairs in Russia, so the ongoing joint Russian-Belarusian nuclear maneuvers are unlikely to change his mind.

Putin trying to project strength

The analyst says that these drills are unfolding concurrently with the Russian dictator’s trip to Beijing. The maneuvers are significant in scale, involving a large layout of personnel and specialized hardware, alongside test launches of nuclear-capable missiles.

«It is highly likely that Putin is using this to demonstrate Russian power, capability, and efficiency to his Chinese counterpart. Will this sway the Chinese leader? I believe he is exceptionally well-informed by his own intelligence services regarding the reality on the ground. He knows exactly how capable the Russian army is when it comes to delivering on promises like „Kyiv in three days“ or „all of Ukraine in three weeks.“ We can all look at the facts and accurately judge the Russian military’s limits here,» Selezniov remarked.

He added that Belarus’ participation in nuclear drills with Russia creates additional tension for Europe, though he does not believe it translates into an immediate real-world threat.

Assessing the threat from Belarus

Recently, Russia has also stepped up information operations, pushing narratives of mounting tension along the Ukrainian-Belarusian border. Kremlin propaganda has pointed to infrastructure construction, the deployment of artillery staging areas, and roadwork leading toward Ukraine.

However, the former General Staff spokesman urges a sober assessment of the situation, noting that such preparations do not signal imminent hostilities.

«To execute an offensive from that direction, you need resources. Neither Russia nor Belarus currently possesses them. Furthermore, moving the massive volume of personnel, armor, and weaponry required for such an operation to succeed—we are talking about hundreds of thousands of troops—could never go unnoticed by Ukrainian or international intelligence,» Selezniov concluded.

Ultimately, the threat of a massive escalation across the thousand-kilometer shared border remains unbacked by actual enemy combat capabilities.