Trump aims to end Ukraine war by summer, political analyst explains US motives

U.S. President Donald Trump is not interested in a lengthy negotiation process on the Russia-Ukraine war and expects to reach at least a sustainable ceasefire format by early summer. This is tied to domestic political objectives and preparations for elections to Congress.

Political analyst Oleksii Buriachenko expressed this view in comments to Focus.

He said he had predicted last autumn two possible «windows of opportunity» for agreements — at the end of the year and in the spring. The key factor, he added, is less the parties’ willingness to achieve peace than the US administration’s desire to gain an electoral effect.

«Trump and his team are primarily seeking to convert their peacemaking efforts into political dividends. Negotiations are proceeding in a relatively planned mode, but the US president is not inclined toward an endless process. It is important for him to secure a result by summer and use it ahead of congressional elections, ” he said.

Buriachenko said the optimal timeframe for the White House would be from late May to mid-June, when Trump would like to show progress in «reconciling the sides».

He also said Russia had changed its approach to the war. Previously, the Kremlin relied on prolonging hostilities, but the situation has now shifted, he said.

«Putin has realised he holds a so-called „golden card“ — the ability to give Trump a chance to announce an end to the war. He will try to extract maximum benefit. That is why I do not expect real breakthroughs in 2026: Russia will more likely imitate a constructive stance, even if it agrees to a formal ceasefire, ” Buriachenko said.

Commenting on the US initiative to hold another round of talks in the United States, he described it as part of a broader political game.

«This is linked to the so-called energy ceasefire. After Trump said it was being observed, Senator Lindsey Graham reacted sharply, publicly calling for Tomahawk missiles to be supplied to Ukraine. Such statements are never accidental — they are signals from Washington, ” he said.

According to Buriachenko, shifting negotiations to the United States suggests doubts in Washington about the Kremlin’s intentions.

«After the effective collapse of the energy ceasefire, Washington is unsure whether Russia genuinely seeks peace or is merely imitating negotiations. That is why the United States wants a clear and substantive response from the Russian delegation on its own territory, ” Buriachenko concluded.