Trump prepares to "surrender" Crimea: How it will affect Ukraine

The American President could recognize the illegally annexed Crimea as Russian territory as part of future peace agreements, according to political analyst Oleh Saakyan in an interview on 24 Kanal.

Saakyan suggests that for Trump, Crimea is the only tangible concession he can offer Vladimir Putin to demonstrate supposed «peacemaking» efforts and emerge victorious from the conflict. However, such a move could have catastrophic consequences for the U.S. sanctions system.

«Recognizing Crimea as Russian would mean the U.S. unilaterally alters Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders. This contradicts international law and could lead to a breakdown in diplomatic relations,» Saakyan noted.

The analyst emphasizes that Trump is attempting to shift responsibility for the decision onto Ukraine and Europe, using rhetoric like, «I did this to stop the bloodshed.» However, without agreements on a ceasefire and security guarantees, such a «surrender» would only deepen the conflict.

Most sanctions against Russia were imposed following the 2014 annexation of Crimea. If the U.S. recognizes Crimea as Russian, the sanctions would need to be completely reevaluated. According to Saakyan, «the sanctions system would collapse» — even if it formally remains in place, its practical impact would cease.

This would allow Russia to partially escape international isolation, enabling Trump to showcase a «result» of his foreign policy.

Saakyan also believes Trump employs rhetoric akin to Russian propaganda. Trump has previously claimed that «not a single shot was fired» during the annexation of Crimea and that «fighting someone twenty times stronger is pointless.»

«Trump operates from a position of strength, not law. For him, the stronger side is always right. His „truce“ is a call for Ukraine to capitulate. This is not peace but a concession to the aggressor,» Saakyan concluded.