Will Belarus launch an offensive? Expert assesses Lukashenko’s forces and Russia’s plans

Amid growing concerns about threats from the north and northeast, diplomat Roman Bezsmertnyi assessed the actual military capabilities of self-proclaimed Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko and the Kremlin’s plans. According to him, Lukashenko cannot be trusted, as he does not speak independently and says only what he is told to say by the Kremlin.

He made the remarks in an interview with the Studio Zakhid programme.

The diplomat, however, believes that Lukashenko lacks the forces needed to wage war against Ukraine. Apart from limited resources, there is also strong domestic opposition, with 83% of Belarusians firmly against participating in the war.

«Lukashenko will keep maneuvering, dodging, saying different things and following the Kremlin’s instructions, but he will not dare send conscripts into battle, because that army would scatter through the Belarusian forests before even reaching its deployment areas,» Bezsmertnyi said.

He added that Belarusian special operations forces are small in number and lack combat experience, proper individual equipment and the necessary hardware. According to him, the heavily armed Belarusian military was built to suppress its own people rather than fight an opponent as strong as Ukraine. Bezsmertnyi also urged people not to read too much into reports about border relay stations, noting that they can be switched on or off within seconds.

How many troops Russia could deploy in the north

Despite Minsk’s limitations, Russia could still use the northern direction. At present, around 120,000 Russian troops are stationed between Leningrad and Ukraine’s northern border. The force grouping is not fully manned, but Russia is capable of reinforcing it.

«If we look at the forces deployed in that direction, Russia could assemble a force of about 200,000 troops there within a month. But a month is long enough for such movements to be noticed. Building a fully combat-ready grouping would take at least two months,» the diplomat said.

Bezsmertnyi stresses that Belarus serves as a staging ground not only for attacks against Ukraine, but also against the Baltic states, Scandinavia and Central Europe. He said the direction remains highly dangerous because of sabotage activities and powerful antennas and electronic warfare systems deployed in the Kaliningrad and Brest regions, which maintain communications with strategic bombers and submarines.

An attempt to advance from Belarus toward Kyiv, Chernihiv, Rivne or Lviv would create enormous difficulties for the invading forces, he said. Ukraine’s northern border is heavily fortified, and in some areas the terrain itself is virtually impassable.

«Of the 12 crossing points, eight are currently mined, to the extent that even birds sometimes trigger explosions there. Others are partially controlled by the military, and the two that could potentially be used are completely blocked,» the diplomat concluded.

Bezsmertnyi concluded that advancing toward Ukraine from the north would require extreme audacity. However, since the Russian leadership is capable of making completely idiotic decisions, Ukrainians must remain prepared for anything and take no risks.