«Each day brings us closer to ceasefire»: Expert on «peace» talks

On Wednesday, December 17, speaking at an expanded session of the Russian Defence Ministry board, Defence Minister Andrei Belousov urged Russian forces to be prepared for a war with NATO over the coming decade. Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, said that claims about an inevitable confrontation between Europe and Russia were «lies and nonsense», while adding that the actions of Western countries — primarily European ones — were pushing the situation to a «red line».

Fresh belligerent rhetoric from Moscow emerged in the midst of talks involving the United States, Ukraine and major European capitals over a «peace» plan being forcefully promoted by the Trump administration, alongside a summit of EU leaders in Brussels. At the same time, the European Union is set to decide whether to provide Ukraine with a €140 billion reparations loan backed by frozen assets of Russia’s central bank.

Seeking to assess where the U.S.-led negotiation process is heading, TSN.ua spoke with Oleksii Melnyk, Co-Director of Foreign Policy and International Security Programmes at the Razumkov Centre, at the Fifth Ukrainian Central European Forum of the Foreign Policy Council «Ukrainian Prism».

According to the expert, each day brings us closer to a ceasefire. An analysis of current developments shows a spiral-like process. It is hard to tell whether it is moving downwards or upwards. When it is said that we are now closer to peace than ever before, politicians are, to a certain extent, being disingenuous.

For now, one crucial factor is lacking — confidence that the United States is effectively the only player able to compel Russia to commit to agreed proposals.

«How far will the talks go this time? We will have the answer literally in the next few days. If Steve Witkoff arrives in Moscow with a folder containing only proposals, the answer will be entirely predictable — a negative one. But if Witkoff brings two folders — one with peace proposals and another with a short list of ways the United States could incentivise the Kremlin to agree… Then, in the coming days, we will understand where we are and where we are moving next, ” Oleksii Melnyk said.

He said the talks would continue into next year, as a full ceasefire cannot be achieved even at this stage. A partial ceasefire is a more realistic outcome. Russia could opt for what it describes as a «gesture of goodwill» and agree to a limited ceasefire — for instance, by stopping strikes deep behind the front lines.

That would suit Moscow, as it would shield its oil refineries, submarines and tankers from Ukrainian attacks, while enabling it to accumulate missiles and Shahed drones before re-engaging with renewed force.

«A Christmas ceasefire is possible. It is quite possible that Putin will say: „Let’s have a Christmas ceasefire — but under the Moscow Patriarchate.“ As for a ceasefire along the front line, I cannot imagine how even the Americans would be able to monitor it. We have relevant experience from 2014 to 2022. Yet all these supposed achievements now being portrayed as a major breakthrough come up against the core issue — the voluntary surrender of what remains of Donetsk region. The United States is pushing for this simply because it does not want to go into the details or hear the arguments of Ukrainians or Europeans about why it will not work. And it will not work, ” the expert said.