How many strikes needed to cause blackout in Moscow: Aviation expert responds

Ukraine has the technical capability to conduct combined attacks on Moscow that could cause a blackout, but it would be challenging and likely limited to one or two successful strikes.

Aviation expert Kostiantyn Kryvolap expressed this view during a broadcast on Kyiv24.

He noted that completely paralyzing Russia’s energy system would require targeting 7–10 key substations.

«Causing a blackout in Moscow is possible. The technical capabilities for this exist. It won’t be easy. It could be done once or twice, conducting combined attacks of various types… We need to hit seven substations to fully paralyze Russia. Ten would guarantee it, ” the expert emphasized.

He stressed that such strikes are part of a political condition outlined by President Zelenskyy: if Kyiv faces a blackout, Moscow will face retaliation.

«And now there’s this „exchange of strikes.“ Belgorod, Chernihiv region, strikes on Sumy, strikes on Nizhyn. In other words, there’s currently a demonstration to each other of who is capable of what, ” Kryvolap noted.

Furthermore, the success of these operations is closely tied to military aid.

«The type of weaponry provided to us by the U.S. is quite important, ” Kryvolap remarked.

The expert also warned about the heavy concentration of Russian air defenses around the capital: up to 40% of Russia’s entire air defense is deployed in Moscow and the Moscow region. This significantly complicates strikes and could reduce their effectiveness in the capital region to 20%.