Russia to continue war in 2026: Expert outlines likely targets

Russia’s military and political leadership will continue attempts to mount an offensive in its war against Ukraine throughout 2026, he said, adding that the enemy plans to advance along a wide front from Lyman in the north to Pokrovsk in the south.

The scenario was outlined by Pavlo Lakiichuk, head of security projects at the Strategy 21 Centre for Global Studies, speaking on Ukrainian Radio.

He said public remarks by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin did not point to preparations for peace, but rather the opposite.

«Putin says that if the objectives of the so-called „special military operation“ are achieved by political and diplomatic means — meaning Ukraine’s capitulation — this would be a „pleasant bonus“ to the military campaign, ” the expert said.

Pavlo Lakiichuk believes the enemy will attempt to advance along a broad front — from Lyman in the north to Pokrovsk in the south.

«The Russians understand their main advantage, which is manpower superiority. The fact that our units and formations are understrength is our main weakness, and the Russians are trying to exploit it as much as possible, ” he said.

He said Russia’s numerical advantage allows it to concentrate forces on the main axes of attack while simultaneously stretching Ukrainian forces by creating pressure points along the entire front line.

Lakiichuk suggested that north-western Donbas would become the main direction of the attacks.

He recalled that in the summer the occupiers had already attempted such an operation, seeking to strike from the north — from the Lyman area towards Sloviansk — and from the south via Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, in order to reach the rear of Ukraine’s main Defense Forces in the Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka area and then push the offensive into the operational depth.