Winter blackouts and attack scenarios: Expert describes what awaits Ukraine

The upcoming winter in Ukraine could follow the same scenario the country has experienced over the past month and a half, with a repeating pattern: a major attack, several days of widespread blackouts, and then a slow recovery.

This view was expressed by Oleksandr Kharchenko, Director of the Energy Research Center, during a briefing at the Media Center Ukraine.

“I expect this winter to unfold in much the same way as the last six weeks. A massive strike on numerous energy facilities will trigger three to four days of the toughest crisis management. Then conditions will slowly improve, leading to a step-by-step return to normal life. The first four to five days of any emergency will be extremely difficult, and that’s a fact,” the expert explained.

He emphasized that emergency blackouts could be “very long and complex.”

Still, Kharchenko said that despite three successive major Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy system, it remains under control. There have been no cascading failures, and experts know exactly how to restore operations.

“Our systems will remain under control. Everyone knows what to do and how to restore operations. Honestly, I don’t see the Russians managing to take any further major steps to worsen the situation. For them (the Russians — ed.), it seems this is now a task that cannot be solved. They’ve launched three massive waves of attacks in a row. Sure, the situation has become more difficult, but there have been no cascading failures, no loss of control, and no hysteria in the energy sector. Everything is functioning, and recovery is underway. Everyone knows exactly what to do,” the expert explained.

He says that Ukraine is “scraping through” this period relying on the reserves of its existing equipment.

“I think, unfortunately, the whole winter will likely follow this pattern: a major strike, four to five extremely tough days, then slow but steady improvement… and then another major strike,” Kharchenko forecasts.

He added that with six to eight quiet weeks, Ukraine could have restored normal power—or at least eased the current restrictions.