Budanov explains why Moscow is trying to "freeze" the war in Ukraine

Russia views a ceasefire as an opportunity to regroup, build up forces, and continue its aggression in the future.

This was shared by Chief of the Defence Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence, Kyrylo Budanov, in an interview with "Ukrinform".

According to him, the Kremlin is employing the "carrot and stick" tactic, where it simultaneously pressures Ukraine with military methods and offers financially beneficial conditions to countries that could serve as mediators in negotiations.

“They will always do this: pressure us and offer various financially interesting things to other parties involved in the process,” Budanov pointed out.

He emphasized the need to distinguish between a ceasefire and peace.

“To quickly reach a ceasefire, I can personally say that this is realistic. To quickly reach peace – no,” the chief of intelligence explained.

Intelligence reports show that the Kremlin understands the critical consequences of a prolonged war. If Russia cannot exit the conflict by 2026, it will lose even the chance of global leadership.

“They need a break. Because according to their strategy, if they do not exit this war by 2026, they will lose even the chance for global leadership,” Budanov stressed.

The cost of the war for Russia is too high – it blocks economic development and prevents the realization of large-scale projects. Specifically, Russia faces a shortage of technologies needed for exploring Arctic regions and extracting gas, and the war only exacerbates this issue.

Thus, Moscow is trying to "freeze" the situation in order to gain a pause, but a peace agreement that would restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity is not part of its plans.

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