How long will the war in Ukraine last? Podolyak explains Zelenskyy’s reference to June 2026

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s statement that the war could end by June 2026 does not imply a «firm deadline.» He was referring to the introduction of tough sanctions that, within a year, would «nullify» Russia’s ability to finance the war.

This was explained by Mykhailo Podolyak, Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

«This is not about a firm deadline that the war will end precisely in June 2026. The war could end at any moment if these sanctions pressures are of a completely different level. The President is talking about implementing prohibitive and secondary sanctions against a number of countries that are, in essence, financial donors, a reservoir from which Russia obtains funds to finance the war, ” the advisor noted.

He added that sanctions must also be imposed on Russia’s oil, nuclear, and gas sectors. This would prevent the Kremlin from spending as much on recruitment and weapons production as it does now.

According to Podolyak, Russia spends $150–200 billion annually on military needs. At the same time, without prohibitive sanctions, Russia earns $450–550 billion from foreign markets.

«But if these prohibitive mechanisms, which involve some bureaucracy, are implemented, they will fairly quickly — within 8–12 months — nullify Russia’s ability to finance these resource positions. On one hand, this is true, but on the other, the President says that if sanctions are imposed today, they will work in this way. However, this doesn’t mean that, besides sanctions, there’s no need, for example, to significantly increase strikes on Russian infrastructure, ” he noted.

This strategy would accelerate the «nullification of Russia’s resource base, ” leaving the occupiers with nothing to fight with.

«The President is saying that, at the very least, we can expect that if a consensus decision on pressuring Russia is made today, there is a one-year deadline in terms of financing the war. But I emphasize again, this is not a specific timeline. It means that imposing tough sanctions will nullify Russia financially, ” the advisor added.

Mykhailo Podolyak also believes that adding other tools of pressure on Russia could alter the variability of the war’s outcome and hasten its end.