How Ukraine can defeat Russia in the war: Expert outlines three key factors

Despite Russia’s substantial superiority in resources and manpower, Ukraine retains a realistic chance of victory. The war’s outcome may depend less on numerical strength than on qualitative factors that enable asymmetric warfare and the gradual exhaustion of the enemy.

Valeriy Pekar, a lecturer at the Kyiv-Mohyla Business School and the UCU Business School, told Yuliya Borysko in an interview that Ukraine’s victory could hinge on three key factors.

The first of these is Ukrainian innovation, the resilience of society, and the heroism of the Armed Forces. Pekar stresses that innovation is the decisive element in a war against a much larger adversary.

«Can Ukraine defeat Russia? It’s difficult. But how is it possible? Through three factors. The first factor is Ukrainian innovation, resilience, and heroism. And here the key factor is innovation, because as a horizontal, networked society, we can adopt innovations quickly, but we are not very good at scaling them, ” he said.

Pekar explains that Russia, as an authoritarian state, has a different model — it is worse at generating innovation but better at scaling it, although this comes at the cost of degrading human capital.

«Russia, as a society, is vertically hierarchical and does not produce innovation very well. They often copy ours, but as an authoritarian country, they are very good at scaling. If you start immersing your country in the past, your human capital begins to degrade, ” Pekar explained.

The expert emphasizes that Ukraine cannot win a symmetrical war but has a chance in asymmetric warfare:

«The key point here is innovation, because only in an asymmetric war can we win. We cannot win a symmetrical war. David cannot defeat Goliath with a sword, spear, and shield. It’s impossible.»

As examples of asymmetric actions, Pekar cites specific Ukrainian operations:

«This is an asymmetric war. We are, thank God, fighting an asymmetric war. Operation „SpiderWeb“ — that’s one. Naval drones — that’s another. Operations by the Defence Intelligence to remove all air defence systems from Crimea — that’s another. Forces of unmanned systems — that’s it.»

The second factor for victory, according to the expert, is international support and the formation of a coalition of determined allies.

«The second factor is the „coalition of the determined.“ We definitely have allies, primarily those who understand the threat posed by Russia, ” he said.

Pekar notes that the countries providing the most support are those fully aware of the danger of Russian aggression.

«Look at the rankings of European countries or global contributions to Ukraine. It’s primarily the Nordic-Baltic Eight. I count on the intellectual leadership of the British and the common sense of the Poles. Over time, Germany and France will become more actively involved, ” he said.

The third factor working in Ukraine’s favor is the state of the Russian economy:

«And the third factor is the weakness of the Russian economy. It’s collapsing. I’m not talking weeks, but it is collapsing and will eventually hit the wall.»

According to Pekar, the collapse of Russia’s economic model is an inevitable consequence of Kremlin decisions.

«Hitting a concrete wall at high speed is painful. And this is inevitable. Putin essentially made the decision — to crash into a concrete wall when he decided to continue the war at the expense of the future, ” he said.