Russia prepares for revenge after summer failure: Zhdanov names main target of attack

Russia’s summer offensive campaign in Ukraine has failed. However, it is likely that the Russian occupying army’s offensive will continue in the autumn.

This was stated by military expert Oleh Zhdanov in a comment to Glavred.

According to him, over the three months of summer, the invaders managed to capture only a small portion of Ukrainian territory.

“The Russian forces had one primary task — a political one: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. This was the minimum goal. The maximum goal was an advance on Zaporizhzhia,” Zhdanov says.

However, Zhdanov noted a nuance that raises doubts about whether Russia’s offensive will end with the summer. He recalled that Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence reported a 160,000-strong Russian troop reserve created by Moscow for the summer-autumn offensive campaign. Yet, the current whereabouts of these troops remain unclear.

Zhdanov believes that the autumn offensive campaign, which Russia has promised to launch from mid-September, may indeed take place. In particular, the expert warns that the occupiers’ forces aim to create large “pincer” movements, similar to those used in 2022–2023 near Lysychansk and Severodonetsk.

“They want to advance through Lyman to the northern outskirts of Severodonetsk and, from the south, bypass Pokrovsk to reach the Donetsk region’s border, thus moving from two directions to achieve at least one minimal political objective — capturing Donetsk region within its administrative borders,” Zhdanov explains.

However, to accomplish this task, Russia would need a much larger military force — at least half a million soldiers equipped with heavy weaponry.

“On one hand, the summer phase of Russia’s offensive campaign has failed. There are no results (capturing 100–200 square kilometers is not a result, as war is always aimed at achieving political goals and is a continuation of politics, only in a harsher and more aggressive manner). On the other hand, there are nuances in Russia’s planned autumn offensive campaign,” Zhdanov says.