Russia's offensive in April: Expert warns of new threat to front

In January, the rate of advance by Russia’s occupying army dropped by half. However, this does not mean that Moscow has abandoned its aggressive intentions. On the contrary, the enemy is using this period to regroup in order to launch a large-scale offensive operation as early as April.

Military analyst Vladyslav Selezniov said this in an interview with OBOZ.ua.

According to the analyst, the slowdown in the pace of Russian advances is driven by objective factors. The main reasons are difficult weather conditions and the nature of fighting in urban areas.

“The enemy has effectively run up against populated areas. Fighting is ongoing on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar, in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, in Kostiantynivka itself, and in the Vovchansk area. Advancing in dense urban development is extremely difficult,” Selezniov said.

The expert stresses that weather affects not only infantry but also the use of drones. However, despite modest territorial gains, Russia’s army has a “political directive” from the Kremlin to maintain pressure and constantly look for weak points in Ukraine’s defenses.

What to expect in spring

The expert sees the greatest threat in the enemy’s plans for spring. Movements of Russian forces and equipment suggest preparations for an escalation.

“I think that by April the enemy is preparing to scale up offensive actions. Weather conditions will change, and the ground will gradually thaw. By that time, the opponent will try to concentrate as many resources as possible,” Selezniov said.

Putin’s plans remain unchanged: full control over Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as the capture of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. However, the Kremlin’s ambitions go further.

According to the expert, regions bordering Russia or close to the front line could also be at risk. The Russians plan to create a so-called “sanitary zone” that would include parts of Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions.

“If the Russians consider Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions their land, they will try to establish a sanitary zone in areas including Dnipropetrovsk,” the expert warned.

Can the Ukrainian Armed Forces Hold?

The implementation of these plans depends directly on the resilience of Ukraine’s defense and the availability of resources. Selezniov emphasizes that the battlefield will be the main test of Russia’s ambitions.

The situation remains difficult, particularly in Vovchansk, where a number of positions were lost due to enemy pressure and certain command miscalculations. However, with fortifications in place and adequate supplies, the expert assesses the occupiers’ chances of success as slim.