Can Russia launch 300–400 Shaheds per day? Zhdanov warns of the threat

According to Denys Yaroslavskyi, commander of an intelligence unit in Ukraine’s Ground Forces, a new wave of attacks is expected as early as September. He says Russia could launch 300–400 “Shahed” drones every two days.

Military expert Oleh Zhdanov comments on what Russia is capable of and what Ukraine should expect this fall, in a statement to TSN.ua.

Yaroslavskyi explains that considering “all circumstances,” most of the drones will likely hit their targets. He notes that Russia has increased its stock of Shahed drones and is actively maneuvering its UAV systems to bypass Ukrainian air defense and radar systems.

"Their electronic intelligence systems are also operating, so we can see Shaheds flying at an altitude of, say, 200 meters, and others at 4.5 km or 4.2 km. And this will only continue to evolve and improve," Yaroslavskyi said.

According to Zhdanov, in theory, Russia could already launch up to 700 Shaheds at Ukraine — but doing so would require stockpiling drones for two weeks, not just one. Even then, it’s a major technical challenge.

"This could be done in three waves, with reloading of the launchers, and the launch process itself would take half a day, if not more. Technologically, this is very complicated. As of today, we estimate Russia is producing around 170 drones per day. The ratio is roughly 55% decoys and 45% combat drones," Zhdanov said.

To launch 400 Shaheds per day, Russia would need to increase production by about 2.5 times, the expert explains.

"That would require at least expanding current production capacities and building new factories. It’s extremely difficult to achieve that within a few months. Our intelligence reports that we are monitoring production scaling in places like Yelabuga, but it is not resulting in a significant increase in daily Shahed output. So if they aim to launch 300–400 drones per day, it’s only possible by accumulating stockpiles. And the more they stockpile, the longer they have to wait between mass drone attacks," Zhdanov says.