Guided bombs could become new «Shaheds» for Ukraine — Zhdanov warns of danger to Kyiv

Russia has expanded the use of its guided aerial bombs. Rocket‑propelled GABs have already been detected over Odesa, Mykolaiv, Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Some military analysts suggest Kyiv could be at risk — the distance from Russia’s Bryansk region to Kyiv’s Troieshchyna district is about 200 kilometres.

Where the Russian army can already reach with GABs today, how destructive they are, how effectively Ukrainian air defences can shoot them down, and whether Kyiv region is truly under threat — all this was discussed by military expert Oleh Zhdanov in comments to TSN.ua.

GABs could become Ukraine’s new «Shaheds»

He said that, unfortunately, the prospect with rocket GABs could mirror that of the «Shaheds.»

«Because Russia is scaling up their production. Just a few weeks ago we observed isolated launches, and now they are becoming more frequent. Not as rapidly as Russia would like — and overall that is a positive for us, that they cannot ramp up numbers instantly. But this threat exists, ” Zhdanov said.

Everything will depend on China, the expert added. A conventional GAB becomes rocket‑propelled when a Chinese rocket motor is added.

«And the more engines China supplies to Russia, the more rocket GABs we will see in our airspace, ” Zhdanov warned.

Can GABs reach Kyiv?

To date, the maximum recorded flight for a rocket GAB is 193 kilometres, Zhdanov said.

«That was one of the first GABs launched at Poltava. It didn’t reach the city and fell somewhere in the region. That’s how the distance was estimated. By the way, 200 kilometres from Bryansk region to Troieshchyna means it would fall near Troieshchyna, ” the expert explained.

So Kyiv is not under direct threat while these GABs are not launched from inside Ukrainian airspace.

«If they do not enter our airspace from the north, they will not reach Kyiv. So at present there is no direct threat to the capital, ” Zhdanov said.

Can air defences shoot down rocket GABs?

Russian rocket GABs travel up to 500 km/h and fly at altitudes of 50–500 metres during terminal trajectories, the expert said.

«They can be shot down, because they produce a very good thermal signature. Man‑portable air‑defence systems like Stinger or Strela and short‑range air‑defence means can intercept them. They can be effective but must be equipped with radar aiming devices. Thermal optics are unlikely to detect them at long range — only in clear, dry weather. Radar is more powerful and will give better results. But again the problem: firing units can fight them, but they need a radar sight and an RLS station to detect these GABs if they are flying, ” Zhdanov explained.

Destructive power of GABs larger than cruise missiles

Oleh Zhdanov says Russian rocket GABs can carry 180–350 kg of explosive. Therefore their destructive power can exceed that of some cruise missiles.

«If it’s a 250‑kg aviation bomb fitted as a rocket GAB, that’s roughly 180 kg of explosive. A 500‑kg bomb — about 350 kg of explosive. 350 kg is even more than a cruise missile. So destruction can be very serious. We know that ordinary GABs at the front can simply destroy a position, forcing us to withdraw because there is nothing left to defend — just a crater. The damage from them is fairly powerful and extensive, ” the expert said.

How far can Russian GABs fly now?

Increasing range of rocket GABs is a complex engineering task. It requires more powerful engines and larger fuel tanks.

«But a fuel tank increases weight. There is a proportional relationship: more fuel — farther flight, but greater weight — less range. You need more engine power. More power means more fuel consumption. I don’t think China will tomorrow provide Russia with a radically different engine. Russia itself cannot produce such an engine today — there is no doubt about that. And China is unlikely to develop something significantly more powerful in such short timeframes. Maybe in a few years Russia could obtain it, if they work on it, ” Zhdanov said.

For now, he appeals to the figure of about 190 kilometres as the maximum range of a rocket GAB.

«There’s no threat to Kyiv at this point. We have to go by that parameter,» the military expert explains.