Lull before the greatest threat to Ukraine: Expert warns of new war tactics

The nature of the war in Ukraine, along with the tactics and intervals between large-scale Russian attacks, could change significantly after Ukrainian forces struck a facility in Voronezh that produced critical electronic components for Russian missiles.

Recently, Ukrainian social media users noticed a distinct widening of intervals between massive strikes, sparking widespread speculation online about why this is happening and what Russia is preparing for.

TSN.ua asked a military expert for his opinion on this matter.

«Yes, it may well be true that the Russians are now conserving missiles. But this does not mean that they will simultaneously conserve drones. Currently, we observe that the Russians are using few kamikaze drones. They are accumulating them for a more massive raid,» warned Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military and political analyst with the Information Resistance group.

According to him, the Russians could carry out this more massive raid even without using missiles.

«But usually, they use them,» he says.

He continues: «The fact that they are experiencing problems with the production of missile weapons after strikes on enterprises is undeniable. I agree that they may be conserving them. But the question arises: why are they conserving drones? Most likely, a process of accumulation is taking place for a more massive, concentrated strike, which they might call some kind of „retaliation“ or something else. An attack like the one on May 13–14 could occur, when the occupiers used 1,600 aerial weapons simultaneously. They could carry out such a strike again.»

According to Kovalenko’s assumptions, a massive strike could have been planned for last Wednesday or Thursday, in line with the formation of the ammunition stock.
«But it did not happen. There was a suspicion that the Russians were preparing to strike on Ukraine’s Constitution Day. But they did not launch a strike on that day either. Therefore, most likely, a more thorough preparation process is underway, related both to the technical and technological problems of the Russians, and to logistical problems. We are currently observing a fairly small number of raids carried out from Crimea. The latter has found itself in isolation, and the launch sites located there do not receive enough ammunition due to logistical isolation. I think that a recalculation of the capabilities for a simultaneous launch is currently underway, in projection with how they will use it, plus the production capabilities for missiles,»

Kovalenko analyzes the situation.

In his opinion, most likely, the Russians will review the further intensity of missile strikes, because the production facility that created components for both ballistic and cruise missiles was damaged.

«Taking into account not only the accumulated ammunition stock, but also what they will be able to produce in the near future. I think the Russians are doing exactly this kind of work right now,» he clarifies.