Russia prepares swift, deceptive strike: Zhdanov explains daytime Shahed terror in Kyiv

Russia is attacking Kyiv with Shaheds in broad daylight. On September 2, the air raid alert in Kyiv region lasted almost five hours — starting at 9 a.m. At 6 p.m., another wave of drones entered the region, some of them reconnaissance.

Military expert Oleh Zhdanov explained to TSN.ua why the Russian army has changed its strike tactics, what targets the enemy is aiming for, and when Ukraine might expect a massive attack following reconnaissance efforts.

Shahed attack on Kyiv on September 2: What is known

During the day on September 2, Russian forces again attacked Ukraine from the northern direction, using 53 strike drones and decoy UAVs.

Most of the Shaheds headed toward Kyiv, the Air Force reported. As of 4 p.m., air defense forces managed to shoot down or suppress 48 enemy UAVs. Despite the significant number of downed targets, the attack was still ongoing as of 7 p.m.

Why Russia changed tactics

The Russian army cannot achieve its military plans at the front, which it had set for the summer and possibly autumn offensives, so it switched to terror tactics. Military expert Oleh Zhdanov expressed this opinion in a comment to TSN.ua.

«By the way, Gerasimov (Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov — ed.) even credited himself with a thousand kilometers allegedly captured. In reality, it’s a gray zone, they don’t control it. So most likely, the decision was made to switch to terror tactics. If there are no advantages at the front, then the tactic of total terror against the civilian population is applied to eventually force us to surrender under the principle „better bad peace than a good war, ” the expert said.

In his opinion, Russia will continue applying such a practice in the near future.

«Look, practically nothing is working in Kyiv right now. Especially government institutions, financial institutions. Some stores are open, but at their own risk until they are fined. So this is total terror tactics, ” Zhdanov added.

Why Shaheds reach Kyiv in daylight

The military expert says air defense does see and hear enemy targets in daylight, but unfortunately it is not always possible to shoot them down outside cities.

«Notice that sometimes our monitoring channels reporting on the air situation say everything’s clear, no UAVs, reconnaissance is ongoing — and then suddenly a post appears: „oh, a bastard showed up, ’“ Zhdanov says.

He explained that Shaheds' routes are now programmed not only by course but also by altitude. That means drones can change their flight level.

«When they drop very low, the same Telegram channels write: „they’re flying over Kyiv very low, so they can show up anywhere.“ That means they use artificial obstacles. If there are hills, it hides in the valley. If it’s a river, it goes above the water. If there are tall buildings or structures, it hides behind them. In such cases we lose it, the radar doesn’t see it. Then, when it pops out in open space, we see it immediately, and to some extent it’s a surprise for us, ” the expert explains.

According to him, this is a problem for Ukrainian air defense that can be solved: Ukraine can deploy aviation or use reconnaissance drones to counter Russian Shaheds.

«What should we do? Raise aviation into the sky, for example, as a reconnaissance spotter. An F-16 can perform this with its onboard radar, it can conduct reconnaissance. But the F-16 is too fast for hunting Shaheds. My question is why we are not deploying our reconnaissance drones, which at a similar speed of 150–200 km/h could observe the airspace from above and adjust our air defense fire. This is a question for our Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi, ” Zhdanov said.

What enemy «eyes» are looking for

The military expert believes Russian reconnaissance drones today are searching, among other things, for our production — the defense industry complex.

«Especially now, when we hyped up… In fact, there is only indirect evidence that we used the Flamingo missile. But they are worried, because its announced range is 3,000 km — enough to reach the „Yamal Cross,“ the main hub of Russia’s entire oil and gas industry, at least in the northern region. They are very concerned about this. Russian Telegram channels specifically pointed to the city where they allegedly found the production of these missiles, and Russian war correspondents there wrote: wait for a strike. I don’t know what they found there. But they are searching, ” the expert said.

At the same time, he has no doubt that the Russian army will strike Ukraine’s energy facilities in the fall.

«The closer to winter, the more they will try to plunge us back into blackout. Especially since if terror tactics have been chosen, this is the most effective way to pressure society, ” Oleh Zhdanov believes.

When Russia may launch the next massive strike

The military expert says that unfortunately no one can answer the most important question — when Russia may strike next. At the same time, the Russian army is ready for a massive combined attack.

«Today, tomorrow, or the day after tomorrow? Unfortunately, hardly anyone can predict that, because it’s either the fantasy of General Staff operators or a political decision of the Kremlin. Unfortunately, Russia does have the capability to carry out a new massive strike with 500–600 aerial attack assets. With this two-week lull they have accumulated a certain stock of drones and missiles. And the stockpiling continues, ” Zhdanov explained.

In addition to the drones already stockpiled, Russia is setting aside dozens, even hundreds, more each day. This means the enemy can launch massive strikes every week.

«Today they used 150, and our intelligence says Russia’s defense industry is already producing about 200–230 daily. So at least 50 have already been put into storage. That’s the problem. By July–August they were already producing 230. Today they could possibly be up to 250. And now look, every day when we see the Air Force report a figure below 230 — Russia had the chance to put the difference into storage, ” the expert said.

In addition, he added, Russia continues producing and stockpiling various types of missiles.

«Up to 50 Iskander missiles per month are produced. For cruise missiles, the figure is similar. So unfortunately they do have the capability. And worse for us — these capabilities are gradually growing. As of today, they do have problems with launchers. But with missiles, unfortunately, they are in the plus — they are stockpiling a certain number of missiles, ” Oleh Zhdanov says.