Russian army already in a new region: Expert assesses threats to the depth of Ukraine

Due to ongoing combat and attempts by the Russian army to advance further in Sumy region, the evacuation of civilians continues.

Head of the Sumy Regional Military Administration Oleh Hryhorov reported this on his official social media page.

“Evacuation from frontline territories is ongoing. In total, civilians are being evacuated from 202 settlements in the region that are under threat of shelling. Over the past four days, more than 500 people have been evacuated,” the regional head stated.

Border guards also officially commented on the difficult situation in an interview with TSN.ua.

“The situation on the frontline and across all directions is commented on by military authorities, but regarding specific areas of Sumy region, I will note that Russia continues to use the tactic of small assault groups,” Andriy Demchenko, Spokesman for Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service said, in a comment to TSN.ua.

He continued: “This pertains to the areas around the settlements of Basivka and Zhuravka, where they are most active. But recently, we’ve seen an expansion of the zone and territory where these small assault groups are trying to advance. This is to the west of Zhuravka, toward the settlements of Veselivka and Volodymyrivka.”

According to the State Border Guard Service, the Russian army continues to send such groups into Ukrainian territory daily, seemingly disregarding losses.

“Every day, Ukraine’s Defense Forces destroy them, but as some are killed, others keep coming under orders from Russian command,” Demchenko said.

He notes that Russia has been accumulating forces in the Kursk region and continues to maintain them there since Ukraine’s Defense Forces began operations within Kursk region.

“These forces were used by the Russians to attack Ukraine’s Defense Forces at the time and continue to do so. And it is from these forces that they are now deploying small assault groups attempting to cross our border,” the border guard spokesman said.

Possible main objective of the Russian army

Military expert and former SSU officer Ivan Stupak commented on the potential developments in Sumy region, suggesting that the enemy may be trying to advance as close as possible to the regional center.

"I see that the Russians, unfortunately, will continue their offensive. There is no such thing as a buffer zone — that’s a fabrication. They use it as a cover, but in reality, they are advancing. However, we don’t know their exact resources — personnel numbers, equipment. Of course, they may also see such maneuvers as a distraction tactic," Stupak suggests.

"But how deep they’ll go — that's the question. Right now, villages near the border are being evacuated. The Russian army is increasing its presence. In my opinion, one of the more threatening scenarios is an approach to the city of Sumy and the beginning of shelling of its northern outskirts with artillery and drones. That’s their typical method — to create panic and tension. I think they have such a plan," says Ivan Stupak.

At the same time, he believes that there is no threat of the invaders advancing toward Kyiv.

"They don’t have enough manpower for that. They understand perfectly well that even the 60,000 they have are also taking losses. I don’t think they’ll stretch themselves toward Kyiv. They might try toward Sumy. Of course, these maneuvers and advances in different directions could be a diversion tactic," the analyst concludes.