Freezing the war will not lead to lasting peace: Diplomat names risks for Ukraine

The scenario of freezing the war, recently mentioned by U.S. Special Representative Keith Kellogg, will not lead to lasting peace. This would be an extremely negative development for Ukraine, as it would mean that Russia's next invasion of Ukraine is only a matter of time, and the aggressor country will choose the best moment for it.

This opinion was expressed by Oleh Shamshur, former Ambassador of Ukraine to the United States and France, in a comment to Kyiv 24.

He believes that a scenario of freezing the war is possible, but it will not lead to peace.

“This scenario [freezing the war - ed.] is possible. And given the military situation and the balance of power, it is extremely negative both for Ukraine and for those who support it. Because, first of all, it is just a ceasefire that will not transform into peace. It’s just the end of this phase of the war,” the diplomat said.

According to him, Russia will attack again, and it is only a matter of time when the Kremlin will take advantage of the pause to restore losses and strengthen the combat readiness of its occupying forces.

“Unfortunately, we must admit that the initiative will be with Putin. That is, he will determine when to strike,” Shamshur believes.

The only thing Ukraine can do in such a situation to resist future Russian aggression is to use the pause in hostilities to deeply restructure its defense capabilities and enhance the efficiency of its army. At the same time, a ceasefire, if achieved, should be perceived by all Ukrainians not as the end of the war, but as a new stage in the struggle, where it is crucial to soberly assess the risks.