How to make Russia stop the war: Portnikov names the formula

Only economic, social, and demographic exhaustion can push Russia toward peace negotiations.

Ukrainian journalist Vitaliy Portnikov said this in a conversation with Olha Aivazovska.

He emphasized that at present, we do not know the real state of the Russian economy.

“We do not have an answer to the question of the future. What should the exhaustion of the Russian Federation look like so that at least some problems arise in it that would force the Russian leadership to stop fighting? Well, we can offer another formula: when the costliness of efforts does not lead to the expected results for a long enough time. Figuratively speaking, when you are banging your head against a wall,” Portnikov says.

At the same time, he acknowledges that this is a weak hope.

“What if, for years in Russia's war against Ukraine, a large amount of resources is spent — human, economic — Russian facilities, both military and energy-related, are destroyed, and there are no real opportunities for seizing new territories or for defragmenting and destabilizing the Ukrainian state itself — perhaps at some point there will be a desire not so much to take a pause, but simply to end this cycle in order to understand how to act more effectively,” the analyst reflects.

Portnikov suggests that at that point a path may open to one of the following formulas:

a more realistic one — a short peace and long wars,

- or a less realistic, but more desirable one — a long peace and short wars.