Not the Baltics, but Odesa: Political analyst on Putin’s true intentions

Despite rumors that Putin is seriously considering an attack on the Baltic countries, including Estonia, the likelihood of such a scenario remains low.

This view was expressed in a new podcast on Mykola Kniazhytsky’s YouTube channel by political analyst Vadym Denysenko, reports Espreso.

According to the expert, Putin operates with two directly opposing logics: the collapse of the EU and establishing Russian control over the entire post-Soviet space on one hand, and on the other, returning to the EU market and lifting sanctions.

Will China help Russia in an attack on Europe?

«Many say Russia could count on China in this adventure, because China would want to attack Taiwan while Russia targets the Baltic states. In my view, this is nonsense, as China definitely does not need a war in Europe, ” the expert said.

Denysenko explains this by China’s annual profits from the European market, which total around $300 billion.

Putin’s decisions are driven by emotion, not logic

At the same time, the political analyst notes that Putin’s decisions are subjective. He acts on emotions rather than logic.

According to his observations, the Russian dictator has recently struggled to make any decisions. Studies and surveys also record a decline in living standards for the average Russian and the typical business. There is further turbulence surrounding internet shutdowns and Telegram restrictions.

«Putin does not want to take risky decisions right now. That’s why the likelihood of an attack on the Baltic countries at this moment is quite low, ” Denysenko says.

Will the EU fight for the Baltic states?

The expert answered: «No one currently has an answer to whether German and French troops would defend the Baltic countries. I think the situation is 50/50 right now, and no one knows for sure.»

Whether war breaks out in Europe depends on Ukraine

Denysenko believes that Putin undoubtedly dreams of seizing the Baltic countries and Eastern Europe. But for that, Russia would first need to occupy Ukraine.

«Without this, I don’t believe they would be ready to take any action, especially if Europeans are prepared to defend themselves. We all think in terms of Donbas, but for Putin, the issue of acquiring Donbas territory is already settled — he sees it as past, not future. His current strategic goal is Odesa and access to the Black Sea. Then Russia would control a huge stretch of sea — from Georgia to Romania — shifting the balance of power in the Black Sea. He thinks like Catherine II. If he fails here, and I am convinced he will, he will be stuck. Without mobilization, they don’t have the strength to advance, ” the expert concluded.