Why Trump’s envoy goes to see Lukashenko? Zelenskyy's Office explains the purpose

Mykhailo Podolyak, Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, explained the implications of this visit in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.

Podolyak disagreed with the notion that Kellogg is traveling to Minsk to persuade the Belarusian dictator to distance himself from Putin.

“I think Kellogg is looking for ways to expand a dialogue window with Russia. He seems to believe Lukashenko still has some agency and may be able to influence Putin to some extent — and he wants another communication channel to move through,” Podolyak said.

He considers this strategy a mistake. In his view, Lukashenko lacks real independence and acts very cautiously, as he fears Putin and would not interfere with the Kremlin’s decisions on war and peace.

“Lukashenko is dependent not only on Russia but also on China. Russia forms nearly all of Belarus's budget and controls its entire security sector. So, Belarus today has no real sovereignty as a state. But Kellogg believes he can still use Lukashenko as a communication tool,” the presidential advisor added.

In Podolyak’s opinion, the only country that truly has leverage over Russia is China. But China currently has its own tensions with the United States.

“That’s why China definitely won’t be interested in helping the U.S. gain political points through a peacekeeping mission. China might play that role itself — but when exactly is unclear. At the same time China understands that this war is already affecting its own interests,” he concluded.