Expert warns of new hotspot in Ukraine: Moldova’s role
Analyst Oleksiy Melnyk says Moldovan President Maia Sandu is right to warn about the risk of her country being used as an infiltration platform for a potential Russian incursion into Ukraine’s Odesa region.
Follow us on Google
Putin and Maia Sandu
Russia continues provocations against European countries but seeks to stay below the threshold of outright war, allowing the Kremlin to shift “red lines” and blur the boundaries between peace and conflict. This tactic, likened to “boiling a frog slowly,” is considered more dangerous than open invasion, as it sows division among allies and provokes internal debates.
Military expert Oleksiy Melnyk said this in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA.
He stressed that attempts to avoid confrontation for the sake of stability only delay inevitable losses, which could ultimately be far greater.
Threat to Odesa region
Melnyk confirms that the threat of destabilization in Moldova is real, especially ahead of the parliamentary elections on September 28. His assessment aligns with President Sandu’s warning that Moldova could become a launchpad for Russian troops targeting Odesa.
“The threat is indeed real, especially if it involves not just an opposition political force but a powerful Russian state apparatus with massive financial resources — then it becomes an existential threat,” Melnyk said.
He added that Moldova’s vulnerabilities include a strong overseas diaspora, the Gagauzia region, and protest sentiments, which pro-Russian forces can exploit due to the Sandu government’s failure to quickly resolve economic issues.
Scenarios for Ukraine: acting “much more decisively”
The emergence of another hotspot at the border, through internal protests, destabilization, and provocations from the Transnistrian enclave, would be a highly undesirable scenario for Ukraine.
Melnyk noted that if pro-Russian forces, seeking unification with Transnistria, prevail, Ukraine would need to act far more decisively than during the 2014–2022 period.
The expert also highlighted Moldova’s geographic position, surrounded on all sides, which in the worst-case scenario — a renewed “special military operation” — provides Ukraine and Romania with real opportunities to contain direct Russian interference, though he emphasized that political will is required.