New invasion from Belarus: Kuleba breaks down Lukashenko’s actions

A series of factors point to a gradual escalation on Ukraine’s northern borders, where Belarus is increasing activity under close Kremlin supervision. Despite alarming preparations, no strike groups have been detected so far that would indicate an imminent attack in the near future.

Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba shared this assessment in a video on his YouTube channel.

Military preparations in Belarus

According to Kuleba, a combination of developments suggests a potential new level of threat from Belarus. First and foremost, since the start of 2026, the country has begun military preparations—"continuous combat training of Belarusian army units.»

This training is conducted under Russian supervision. While high combat readiness alone is not a direct threat, its significance grows when combined with other factors.

Conscription of reserve officers

The second factor cited by the former foreign minister is the emphasis on mobilization readiness across the entire country, not just for the military and reservists.

«News first surfaced citing Russian media that Lukashenko signed a decree on the conscription of reserve officers. This is just one element of this mobilization training,» Kuleba explained.

According to him, while there is nothing extraordinary here and this is not the first time Belarus has done so, it is essential to assess the situation comprehensively and take this nuance into account.

Lukashenko’s actions

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko is actively projecting readiness. While his publicized visits to various locations and rhetoric directed at generals may be performative, large-scale command-and-staff maneuvers indicate a different level of intent.

«Large-scale command maneuvers are not just about maintaining combat capability. This is about practicing coordination at the level of headquarters and units,» the former minister explained.

Belarus strengthens air defense

The next factor is the buildup of air defense forces. This suggests the country is preparing for potential strikes within its airspace.

«What could be flying in? Obviously, long-range drones and missiles. For that, you need air defense systems,» Kuleba said.

Russia, he claims, is assisting Belarus in forming its air shield by reinforcing its ally with additional systems.

Speaking on the interaction between Russia and Belarus, Kuleba also says that cooperation between the two countries' armies has now become more visible.

«Currently, it is not at the unit level, but specifically at the level of this coordination and synchronization of plans,» the former foreign minister explained.

According to Kuleba, these factors—along with Lukashenko’s public statement that the country is preparing for war—point to a potential threat.

«When you look at these five factors separately, nothing seems overly threatening. But when you put them together, it looks like preparation,» he concluded.

Despite this, Kuleba believes Lukashenko is well aware of the risks of an invasion and the fact that Ukrainians will defend themselves.

«Therefore, I do not see an imminent offensive, but in my view, what is happening constitutes clear preparations for a military escalation,» the official said.