Ukraine may be left without Patriot systems as Middle East war drains missile stocks

The escalation of the war between Iran and Israel directly threatens Ukraine’s defense capability. Due to the high intensity of strikes in the Middle East, global stocks of interceptor missiles are being depleted, which could leave Ukrainian skies unprotected from Russian ballistic attacks.

This view was expressed by aviation expert and analyst Kostiantyn Kryvolap in comments to Kyiv24.

Global shortage and competition for missiles

Kryvolap warns that if Iran continues attacks at the current pace for another two weeks, missile stockpiles for Patriot systems in the region will be exhausted. This would create a major problem for Ukraine, as demand for the scarce PAC-3 MSE interceptors will increase worldwide.

According to the expert, Ukraine has found itself in a situation where it may need to negotiate with Middle Eastern countries over the allocation of future deliveries. Despite signed contracts to expand arsenals, production capacity is currently insufficient to satisfy all requests simultaneously.

European production issue

He also noted that expectations for new European systems, including SAMP/T New Generation, are unlikely to be met in the short term. These systems still need to complete testing, and production rates will be too low.

«At best, it will be 10 missiles per month. That’s all. I am very concerned that we may now be left without anti-ballistic weapons, ” the analyst said.

He stressed that the PAC-3 MSE version of Patriot remains the only reliable means against Russian missiles such as Iskander, Kinzhal, Zircon and Kh-22.

Only option — strikes on Russian territory

Given the shortage of interceptors, the expert says the only logical solution would be to destroy missiles at their launch positions rather than intercept them over Ukraine. This would require concentrating efforts on strikes using Ukrainian ballistic weapons against targets on Russian territory.

According to Kryvolap, once enemy missiles are already heading toward Ukrainian cities, defending against them amid a shortage of air defense ammunition will become nearly impossible. Preventive destruction of launchers is therefore a matter of survival for the national defense system.