16 times more "Shaheds": What goals has Russia set for itself in Ukraine?

On the night of January 21, the Russian army attacked Ukraine with 131 UAVs. A year ago, specifically on January 20, the enemy, according to the Air Force of Ukraine, launched 8 "Shaheds" at our country. This means that the number of drones currently flying is 16 times higher.

According to experts, the Russian army gained these capabilities after it started producing these UAVs. What the future tactics of drone attacks will be and how far the enemy can go - this is what former spokesman of the Ukrainian General Staff, military analyst Vladyslav Seleznyov, and military expert Roman Svitan explained in an interview with TSN.ua.

"In fairness, it should be said that today, as well as the previous night, not only "Shaheds" flew over Ukraine, but also imitator drones, "Parodies", and "Gerberas". We need to understand that about half of the drones launched daily by the enemy over our territory are "decoy" drones," Vladyslav Seleznyov says.

He adds, "I think that now the Russian defense industry is operating at the limit of its capabilities. But that doesn't mean that tomorrow there won't be more of them. As we know, our intelligence reported that new industrial sites are being built where the enemy can produce such components. The enemy is absolutely clear about the fact that by scaling up missile and drone attacks, it can achieve success. Where we can guarantee the destruction of 10 drones, it’s not certain that we can destroy all 110 if they are launched. I believe this factor is decisive because for 2025, Russia is providing all necessary supplies to its military personnel. Russia will scale up the production of drones in particular."

According to Seleznyov, in the near future, the use of drones by the enemy may remain at the current level—around a hundred.

"Talking about a multiple increase in drones is worth considering only after our intelligence learns that the enemy has launched additional industrial capacities," the expert clarifies.

He adds, "The fact that there were fewer drones last year shows that the production process was just getting underway. Back then, deliveries were mainly from Iran."

In conclusion, he says that currently, Russian drones have three missions: reconnaissance, strike, and the maximal depletion of our resources.

Military expert Roman Svitan also comments on the increase in the number of drones, saying that some of them are currently imitators.

"The enemy can increase the number of drones attacking Ukraine by using "decoys." The total number could reach 150-200 drones. However, even with the large number of UAVs, the enemy does not achieve its objectives. When a large number of "Shaheds" are flying, the percentage of targets shot down is significant. Some drones fly along the same route, and creating new routes takes time. The enemy can increase the number of launched drones by several dozen percent, but not by multiples," the expert says.

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